Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Vindy's Picks Week 4-2013


MOSCOW, Russia (Itar-TASS)…
Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov brokered a deal on Saturday, staving off U.S. military action against Syria. The agreement, which allows the former Soviet Union to oversee the dismantling of Syrian chemical-weapons production, was set in stone when Lavrov finally caved and promised Vladimir Putin would return Robert Kraft’s Super Bowl ring. In June, New England officials rebuked the Russian president’s offer to make the Patriots owner a new “expensive one outta’ good metal and rock”. Putin also allegedly misappropriated one of Nick Saban’s national championship rings. The Tide coach, after seeing his team beat Texas A&M on the road this past weekend, shrugged-off the incident quickly, saying “No big deal. I’ll have another one soon enough.”

In related news, Silver State senator Harry Reid was caught just after the New Year tryin’ to lift a ceremonial pen at Obama’s inauguration and was ultimately given one from inside the Commander-in-Chief’s jacket. The Nevada politician was also recently seen trying to make-off with the quill Vindy (who went 8-5-2 [27-18-2, .600]), used to scribe…

(“Winning, D’uh!”)

#3 Clemson (-14) over NC STATE:
Clemson 34 Wolfpack 17

#1 ALABAMA (-40) over Colorado State:
Changed our initial choice here. Original concern was (is?) possible letdown spot in sandwich game for ‘Bama, between last week’s 2013 version of the Game of the Century and a visit from a pretty good (and currently-ranked) Ole Miss club. However, State’s part of Mountain Jest conference that really hasn’t represented to-date. CSU has been a traditionally poor September-ATS team and 26-point neutral site loss to Colorado, followed by 3-point defeat at Tulsa doesn’t inspire us. Nick Saban was clearly not happy with the defensive play in A&M game and we think Coach will challenge the stop-squad to keep Rams outta’ the end zone altogether. Can’t see AJ and company not putting up 48-49, even with a flat first-quarter. Best guess for “wish I had it back”, but…Alabama 48 Colorado State 6

#2 Oregon: IDLE (next vs. Cal)

Florida A&M @ #4 OHIO STATE: No line.

#5 STANFORD (-7) over #23 Arizona State: The only pairing of Top 25 clubs this week…and it shouldn’t have been. Possible conference title-game preview if Ducks and Bruins falter somewhere, but we’ll figure it’s a bronze-medal match for now. Army’s triple-option kept Cardinal off-balance long enough to post 20 in a cover last week, but Pitchforks will use the run only as an afterthought. Trees played nine games last season decided by 7 or less, winning 7, though covering only 4. Badgers RB Gordon ran for nearly 200 yards vs. ASU and Stanford claims own potent rushing game. Pitchforks are 1-4-2 getting points on the road last two years. Collectively, these two clubs have failed ATS in three games vs. FBS squads. Last meeting (2010) resulted in 17-13 victory by the Cardinal. If the NCAA football pantheon is fair and equitable, it’s…Stanford 34 ASU 24

Auburn (+18) over #6 LSU: We considered this as our first underdog pick on the season for “lock of da’ week”. We thank the Bengals for letting off the throttle vs. Kent State at about the 11-minute mark to give the spread-win to the Gilded Flushes, permitting our fab forecaster to hang one in the win-column. We are, however, surprised to see LSU QB Mettenberger played the entirety of the game given this one on the horizon and the decision well-in-hand after 45 minutes of play. Bengals show three straight “overs” and play in third consecutive home-game. Marc Lawrence notes 7 of State’s 8 SEC tilts were decided by 8 or less last season, including a 12-10 victory at Aubie. Les Miles teams are seriously-go-against in conference home-openers and War Eagle, 3-0 SU/1-2 ATS in 2013, sucks dirty pond-water vs. ranked squads, but welcomes back former OC Gus Malzahn after two-year hiatus…LSU 27 Auburn 19

Florida International (+41) over #7 LOUISVILLE: FIU managed only 9 first-downs and was outgained by 120 yards on offense in 34-13 loss to then-#23 FCS squad Bethune-Cookman. Another sluggish beginning by Teddy Bridgewater off rivalry win over Kentucky last week could possibly keep da’ Panthers, who lost by 33 at Maryland and 38 to Central Florida, in it for awhile. International beat the Redbirds 24-17 at Louisville in 2011 and lost close 28-21decision to Da’ Ville in Miami in 2012, but has few returning starters from those games and we’ll call it…UL 38 FIU 0

Bethune-Cookman @ #8 FLORIDA STATE: No line.

North Texas (+32) over #9 GEORGIA: Joja’ 35 Mean Green 13

#10 TEXAS A&M (-28 ½) over Southern Methodist: We looked at this for “lock of da’ week”. After 21-point final stanza that saw Aggies’ attempted-comeback from 3-TD-deficit come up empty against ‘Bama, we got one word fer this week…”catharsis”. Johnny Banana-Peel should see this as an egotistical-opportunity to still vie for some back-to-back Heisman hardware, even if he struggles early in the aftermath of defeat by Tide. A&M has a history of successful covers vs. Southern Methadone, who began the year losing by 18 at now-ranked Texas Tech and slipping past AA Montana State 31-30 last week. The problem for A&M, of course, is the scoring D, which shows about 30 ppg-against, even before ‘Bama’s 49. Manziel could carry Cadets into the 60’s, but we’ll just say…TAMU 58 SMU 24

#11 Oklahoma State: IDLE (next @West Virginia)

#12 South Carolina: IDLE (next @Central Florida)

New Mexico State (+42) over #13 UCLA: Bruins 48 NMSU 10

#14 Oklahoma: IDLE (next @ Notre Dame)

#15 Michigan (-17 ½) over UCONN: LOCK OF DA’ WEEK. Line is over-reaction to Wolverines’ late rally to beat lowly Akron in game that saw four UM turnovers, including early 4th Quarter pick-six that gave hope to the Zips. Huskies likely headed for tough season after dropping opener by 15 to AA Towson and an 11-point loss to Maryland (securing one of our Week 3 best bets). Brady Hoke called last week’s match “a glazed doughnut game”, providing said-pastry to the first 5000 fans arriving early for Michigan’s day-matches at home as a continual promotion honoring part of his childhood pre-game ritual. Given the aforementioned Wolverines rally to beat the Zips (+36), perhaps Coach oughta’ just repress that memory! Here’s hopin’ Big Blue doesn’t lose one in Ann Arbor as the result of a long FG bouncin’ off the maple cross-bar!...Michigan 42 Sled Dogs 13

Savannah State @ #16 MIAMI: No line.

Idaho State @ #17 WASHINGTON: No line.

Maine @ #18 NORTHWESTERN: No line.

#19 Florida @ TENNESSEE (+17): Line shot upward after it was announced Jeff Driskel will most likely start for the Gators, but we’re not convinced yet. We expected more from Vols, who drew first-blood vs. Oregon, then got left in the dust in 59-14 rout. Rocky Top is 4-12 ATS in SEC play the last two seasons, actually winning just a pair of those 16 contests. Tennessee lost by 17 in the Swamp in last year’s battle. Crocs are 0-2 ATS following upset loss (as we called!) at Miami. Too many to give until Florida shows more on offense… Gators 28 Tennessee 14

#20 BAYLOR (-29) over Weeziana-Monroe: Bears 51 ULM 20

#21 Mississippi: IDLE (next @ Alabama)

Michigan State (+6 ½) over #22 NOTRE DAME: UPSET PICK OF DA’ WEEK. Neither side has been impressive in their victories and Irish are a couple plays away from 1-2 SU after scoring 21 points in about 3 ½ minutes to start the 4th Quarter of come-from-behind win over Purdue last week. Spartans got no love from the poll-voters last week after pounding FCS Y-Town State and remain just beyond the Top 25. Leprechauns are 0-3 ATS on the year, but 3-0 ATS last three years vs. State, including 20-3 win over then-#10 Michigan State squad. Sparty’s won 15 of 18 non-Big Tenuous contests the past three-plus seasons but is 1-4 ATS in last 5 tries vs. ranked opponents. Purdue was pass-heavy, Spartans will lean more to the turf…MSU 23 ND 20

Purdue (+25) over #24 WISCONSIN: Morale could be an issue for both sides given aforementioned rally by Notre Dame to beat Purdue and game that was stolen by the zebras from Wisconsin. Badgers have owned PU, winning and covering last three years, though just once by more than 25. Boilers used good air-game vs. the Irish and Wisky’s defensive backfield, that got lit-up for more than 350 passing yards, is suspect. No choice here but to take the generous points. In light of the Wisconsin upset of Arizona State that wasn’t, Badgers QB Joel Stave didn’t throw a single pass in practice this week, instead practicing only the proper taking of a knee!...Badgers 29 Purdue 20

Texas State (+26 ½) over #25 TEXAS TECH: FBS sophomore and Fun Belt newcomer Bobcats opened the year beating a dismal Southern Mist squad in Hattiesburg then knocked off Prairie View 28-3. Red Raiders weren’t kind in 58-10 victory last season, nor in 50-10 win the year before. Tech’s claim-to-fame thus far is 20-10 triumph over then-ranked TCU club missing its starting quarterback in mistake-filled snoozer, which saw five combined turnovers and 23 yellow hankies. Guns Up is 2-7 last three seasons as chalk in Lubbock…Red Raiders 39 TSU 20

BTW, overlooked in the whole U.S.-Russia accord was a fine-print statement that requires Time Tebow to accept the offered $1M to participate in a pair of pigskin games for Moscow’s Black Storm! Nobody told the former-Gator stand-out that his soon-to-be-comrades have already reached the playoffs and will face a prison team from the outer-Mongolian gulag…on the road!!

Back in Week One, we noted the Marc Lawrence’s Playbook.Com strategy of wagering on bowl teams from the previous season who drop their first two games SU, then win Game Three outright and host their Game Four opponent. While the first three weeks of 2013 have eliminated many of the possible qualifiers, Syracuse lost games to Vindy’s alma mater and Northwestern prior to blasting FCS squad Wagner 54-0 last week. ‘Cuse (-15) plays at home vs. Tulane this Saturday and will have a sophomore QB Terrel Hunt making his first start.

Other notable FBS-FCS scores…Fordham 30-29 over Temple and Buffalo 26-23 over Stony Brook…in 5OT!

Tim Tebow’s latest post-NFL job op came recently by way of the AFL’s LA KISS, owned by none other than Paul Stanley and Gene Simmons. Vindy’s spies say Tebow, in a private work-out for the team, struggled to move around the pocket or scramble while wearing the platform-cleats, but did a bang-up job crooning, “Beth, I know yer lonely…and I hope youuuu’ll be alriiiiiight…’cause me and the boyyys’ll be playin’…all niiiiiiiiiight…”

Lose one for the Chipper!?”…This August, Chip Kelly was quoted as basically dismissing the value of time-of-possession. Curiously, the bEagles called inexplicable time-outs during San Diego’s final possession in the waning seconds of a 30-30 game, allowing the Chargers to regroup and boot the winning FG!

Black Shirt: Goes to Sooners RB Keith Ford for a three-yard TD carry with 3:21 left vs. Tulsa that got Oklahoma the cover and Vindy a forecast dubya rather than a potential third forecast-push.

“Locked in a Box?”: Cardinals squeaked past the line vs. Kentucky to run our tally to 3-0 (1.000).

Shoppe Talk: UCLA and Oklahoma get weekend passes, but it’s Chicken Cacciatore every night this week on the Shoppe dinner-menu as the Gamehens of South Carolina go to 0-3 for the forecast (.000).

Vindy’s Week 4 Best Bets: Last Week: 3-1 Season: 10-4 (.714)
Western Michigan +17 over IOWA, FLORIDA ATLANTIC +4 over Middle Tennessee State, Marshall +10 over VA TECH, Maryland -5 ½ over West Virginia, Wyoming -2 ½ over AIR FORCE

And if yer scorin’ at home, you know our preferred selections…locks of da’ week and best bets…have gone a collective 13-4 (.764) to-date, meanin’ the local bookies wanna’ bust a Kaepernick in our……well…you know…!

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