Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Vindy's Picks Week 4-2017

NASA DECLASSIFIES HISTORICAL PASS...IN SPACE 
HOUSTON, Texas (UPI)…Kept on the down-low by government officials until now, just outside the International Space Station, Tim Kopra, seven-months ago, tossed a regulation-size pigskin that went for almost 565,000 yards. Quipped Kopra…”One small pass (LOL) for Man…one giant Lambeau Leap fer Mankind.”. Unfortunately, the seriously-record-setting throw would be called back as Kopra was already across da’ line-of-scrimmage, drawing a flag for "illegal forward pass", resulting in penalty yards and loss of splash-down! Nonetheless, talent scouts at the NFL Combine were salivating over the prospects, including a stellar vertical-leap, (though time in the forty-yard dash was a big no-go!)! 
 
Three-weeks in, yer humble host finally found some footing in the form of Week Three's 11-8 (22-29, .431) outing. Allowing fellow-bettors to "drop da' mic" in sportsbooks across the nation, it's... 
 
THE WEBER KID'S 2017 WEEK 4 FORECAST 
 
("Culturally-appropriated"!) 
 
THURS. SEPT. 21 
#21 SOUTH FLORIDA (-20 ½) over Temple: Best guess for "wish we had it back". After struggling a bit to get by I-AA Stony Brook, Bulls pounded Power Five Illinois last weekend. After covering 15 of last 18 AAC contests, Owls are under new management and inspire no confidence getting clobbered at South Bend, edging FCS Villanova 16-13 and (perhaps most-telling) mere eight victory over doormat UMass. USF has been gold as chalk in Tampa last three years...South Florida 44 Barnyard Birds 23 
 
FRI. SEPT. 22 
#23 Utah @ ARIZONA ("under 60 ½"): After three weeks of standing on their tippy-toes, reaching up for the bottom-rung of rankings, SVUtes finally break into the Top 25. Utah's gone 3-0 SU/2-0 ATS and has allowed none of its first trio of opponents to score more than 16. Off first SU losing-season since 2011 and just second in last nine years, 'Cats blew-out FCS NAU and bottom-feeder Texas-El Pasta around defensive-slogger 19-13 loss to Houston.  Feel free to smack Vindy about the head-and-shoulders with a handful of parlay cards for making another "total" choice, but...Utah 27 AZ 20 
 
SAT. SEPT. 23 
VANDERBILT (+19 ½) over #1 Alabama: 'Dores added to their prowess gettin' points at home and facing Top 25 foes with straight-up win, taking out K-State as a 4-point 'dog, bringing-home our upset pick of da' week, Tide conceded a couple late scores to allow the Flyboys to best the line. Playing with the #1-tag and competing in what's perceived as the toughest division in the country, Pachyderms, 7-2 ATS SEC last year, seem content to simply win as the path to the playoffs (a la fitty-fitty against the line each of previous three seasons) rather than post style-points (Auburn notwithstanding)...Crimson Trype 31 Admirals 17
 
Boston College (+34) over #2 CLEMSON: Tigers 41 BC 13
 
#3 Oklahoma (-28) over BAYLOR: Sooners 52 Bares 16 
 
#4 Penn State (-12) over IOWA: Interesting line. Lions' collective blood-pressure never exceeded 120 over 80 in 56-zippo win vs. Joa' State (our second [and frankly more-stable] choice fer "lock of da' week") (a shut-out we called!) vs. Hawkeyes 31-14 win vs. North Texas. Iowa lost two RB to injury, including leading-rusher Akrum Wadley. Wadley might return, but back-up James Butler is out 'til further notice Nits have pitched two shut-outs in three games, allowing only Pitt to crash the scoreboard...fer 14...Alma Mater 29 Iowa 13 
 
CAL (+16 ½) over #5 Southern Cal: LOCK OF DA' WEEK...Troy Boys hit the conference-tarmac after surviving Texas in double-extras. Bears, just 6-12 ATS in PAC-12 play the last two years, are basically the 12-PAC's underrated-equivalent to the Big Tentacles' Purdue and already have upsets at UNC and vs. SEC West's Old Mist under their belts. Lotsa' Senior returning-starters on the defensive-side have significantly-improved 2016's generous 43ppg-against tally. Can't pull the trigger on an upset-pick, but we'll happily take more than two-touchdowns in Berkley...USC 31 Ursa-Major 28  
 
#16 Texas Christian @ #6 OKLAHOMA STATE ("over 68 ½"): Second-choice fer "lock". Cowpokes have dented the scoreboard for 59, 44 and 59 thus-far. Of the six-collective games played combined, only two have ended below this total. First 'dog-role for the Horny Toads in this series in four seasons. In OT...OKSU 49 TCU 41 
 
#7 Washington (-10 ½) over COLORADO: UDUB 31 Buffaloes 19 
 
PURDUE (+10) over #8 Michigan: UPSET ALERT...Big Blue 27 Choo-Choos 26 
 
#9 WISCONSIN: IDLE (next vs. Northwestern) 
 
#10 OHIO STATE (-40) over Nevada-Las Vegas: After being man-handled in loss to Oklahoma, State whacked Army by 31. Are the Keydets at least 9-points better than the Rebels?! Oh, Hell-yes! Having served nine years in a Nevada Grey-Bar Hotel for armed-robbery at Palace Station casino, OJ Simpson is set to be released on parole as early as October 1...just in time to replace Tony Sanchez as head coach of the Rebels...Buckeyes 66 University of Nevada-Lenient Verdict 20
 
#11 GEORGIA (-6) over #17 Mississippi State: Joja' 21 Bulldogs 13 
 
NC State (+12 ½) over #12 FLORIDA STATE: Mind-set and amount of practice time for FSU is unknown. Wolfpack at least has had three live-fire tilts to work things out and lost 24-20 in 2016. Fer the Game of Thrones fans..."It's what Vindy does, he drinks and he 'Noles things.". Not surprised by outright Wolfpack dubya, but let's say...Da' Chop 24 NCSU 17 
 
Old Dominion (+27) over #13 VIRGINIA TECH: Hokies 41 Monarchs 17
 
Toledo (+13) over #14 MIAMI: UPSET PICK OF DA' WEEK. Again, like our House Stark over the Tribe call above, we're favorin' an Elton John Rocketman-squad with a trio of games-played over Coral Gables-club that has been hampered in practice by natural-disasters. Astronauts have beaten da' line in 7 of past 9 (pushing 1) squaring-off vs. non-MAC opponents and haven't gotten double-digits since frying the Arkansas Pulled-Pork in 2015 opener at Arkansas...Jupiter 2 30 'Canes 24 
 
#15 Auburn (-18 ½) over MISSOURI: Aubie kicked former-starter/recent second-string QB Sean White to the curb following his detention for knocking-back a few too many in public. If starting quarterback Jason Stidham gets injured, Tigers are in a world of hurt. UA took a breather from loss at Clemson with sloppy 24-10 victory over I-AA Mercer (unranked, 16 votes in FCS Poll), but need to get back to business vs. Mizzou team, whose points-tallied have dropped from 73 to 13 to 3 last week in 32-point loss to Purdue (one of our "best bets) and could see a goose-egg here. Auburn no bargain here, but Missouri's shows 5 covers in past 17 SEC contests. Only one way to go...Auburn 31 Show-Me State 8 
 
 
#18 WASHINGTON STATE (-28) over Nevada: Line is prolly inflated just a tad, but Coogs are one of few clubs that have won and covered all three tilts to-date. Reno may have left it all on the gridiron in valiant, but just-short try to comeback from 23-point deficit vs. FCS Idaho State. Reno has now put three in the loss-column and a peek at the remaining Wolfpack sked suggests 2-3 outright triumphs left at-best... Wazzou 51 UNR 17
  
Kent State (+42 ½) over  #19 LOUISVILLE: Cards 54 Flushes 14
 
#20 Florida (-3) over KENTUCKY: Gators 24 Wildcats 19
 
#22 San Diego State (-3 ½) over AIR FORCE: Aztecs 19 Flyboys 12 
 
#24 Oregon @ ARIZONA STATE ("over 75"):  Collectively, this pair has finished just 3-2 "over" in 2017. But Devils faced D-minded Sudzu and posted 68 total vs. NMSU. Mallards' pair of lined-contests ended "over" with 77 and 62, plus (GASP!) 98 in melee with lower-division Sudden Utah. Together, the two have recorded 116 and 87 points. Ducks points-scored has decreased each of last two years, while points-permitted has gone up during same timeframe. State shows a butt-load of seniors on stop-squad, but...Drakes 44 ASU 41 
 
Syracuse (+23) over #25 LSU: Bengals 34 Orange 16
 
BETWEEN THE HASHMARKS
 
BTW, David Bowie played a tribute to Kopra, altering famed-lyrics of "Space-Oddity" to reflect..."Grounnnd Control to Maaajorr Tim....." 
 
Also, NFL officials are investigating whether or not Kopra's football met prescribed inflation-standards!
 
During the Gators-Tennessee game, da' Volunteers' band played theme-music from Game of Thrones. Can't wait to see the stylized-version of Neyland Stadium in the 2018 opening-sequence of said-HBO series!
   
Last week, UNLV turned 60! Ironically, this weekend in Columbus, its average points-allowed will do likewise! 
Continuing our series of AlPa does JoePa quotes..."Fredo, you're my older brother and I love you. But don't ever take sides (or totals) against da' Paterno family again. Ever." 
 
Marc Lawrence’s Playbook.Com mag recommends betting on bowl teams from the previous season who drop their first two games SU, then win Game Three outright and play in their own friendly confines during Game Four. The strategy went 2-fer-2 in 2013, with Syracuse (-17 in 52-17 win over Tulane) and Iowa State (+7 in 31-30 loss to Texas) both bringin’ home the money in the designated role! 2014’s qualifiers also went 2-0, with Vandy +21 and Wazzou +23 ½ covering nicely in Week 4. In 2015, the only “qualifier” was Texas-El Pesto, who went into Game Four as 27-point chalk vs. I-AA Incarnate Word and left with a mere 10-point victory in 27-17 win! Last season, Northwestern (+7 ½) lost by 11 to visiting Nebraska, but the Coogs of Wazzou (+2 ½) toppled visiting Oregon by 18, putting the strategy at 1-1 for the year (giving the Pullman Panthers two such covers in as many opportunities) Reviewing the list of 2016-17 post-season squads, Game Four road contests instantly eliminate more than half of last season’s bowlers and realistically, another half of the remaining teams would need to suffer upsets by one or both of their first two opponents to be considered, putting the feasible number of options in the teens this season. But not-to-worry, faithful readers…we’ve tracked the progress for you. The two remaining qualifiers emerge this week.... NORTH CAROLINA (+3) over Duke and SOUTH ALABAMA (-4) over Idaho! 
 
Hooray fer Da' Little Guy! (one more time!): Then-#20 FCS NC A&T did, in fact, beat Charlotte 35-31! Below our radar, Idaho State pinned NEVADA-RENO 30-28. This week, we think #22 Western Illinois could possibly send the Chants of COASTAL CAROLINA packin'. Stay tuned! 
 
After the first 3-4 weeks of NCAA contests, we're likely to see the following squads make Gaming Today's "Dirty Dozen"-column (ie. teams with worst spread-records)...Boston Collitch 0-3 ATS (despite winning opener SU), BYU (0-3 SU/ATS slide after downing FCS Portland State in the opener), as well as Oregon State and UTEP (both 0-3 SU/ATS). We also note Charlotte (0-3 SU/0-2 ATS plus loss by 4 last week to I-AA NC A&T by 4). East Carolina has zero wins in three tries, 0-2 ATS and a 20-point loss to FCS James Madison. UMass (+14 ½) got off the schnide with 9-point loss at Temple. On the plus-side...the Sooners, Cowpokes and Clemson Tigers show 3-0 SU/ATS records. The Aggies of New Mexico State have a lone outright triumph, but have covered  all three contests to-date (with both defeats by 6 or less). 
 
BTW, "stinker of da' week" coming-up...Joja' State (outscored 73-10 on the year) @ CHARLOTTE. Uggghh 
 
Fer da' Game of Thrones fans...to avoid humiliating an already-defeated opponent, does a coach "send a raven" telling his QB to "Bend Da' Knee"???!!! 
 
Over da' summer, Atlanta WR Julio Jones lost an earring worth $100K during a jet-ski excursion. Falcons coach Dan Quinn immediately called for a "dive-play"! 
 
"Wish We Had It Back": (As opposed to "wish we had 'IT' back"...as in the recent-remake of Stephen King's classic killer-clown flick!). We'd like to revisit our Sudden Methadone +18 over TCU pick after noting our lack of success "applying the 'look-ahead' theory". 
 
"Locked in a Box?": Thanks to a 63-yard TD-heave by Feleipe Franks as the clock struck all-zeroes, Florida covered -5 ½ vs. Tennessee, raising the "lock" tally to 2-1 (.667)!
 
Black Shirt: This week's ebony-tee-of-honor goes to Rocky Top K Freshman K Brent Cimaglia for going 0-fer-three on FG-tries at Florida, any of which woulda' given da' Vols da' cover vs. the Gators, if not the outright-win itself! Honorable Mention to da' coin that led to call Vandy's upset of K-State! 
 
Shoppe Talk: Was there ever a doubt????!!! Clemson hosed us yet-again (0-3, .000 season; 3-16, .157 last 19 plate-appearances in the forecast) 
 
Vindy's Week 4 Best Bets: Last Week: 3-1 Season: 9-3 (.750) (And if yer scorin' at home, our preferred- picks [locks of da' week and best bets], stand-in at 11-4 over the first-quarter-ish of the college season! BOOYAH!!!) 
 
Wake Forest 4 ½ over APPARITION STATE, BUFFALO –3 over Florida Atlantic, Cincinnati +11 ½ over NAVY, Texas-El Paso @ NEW MEXICO STATE "over 59"