Wednesday, October 09, 2013

Vindy's Picks Week 7-2013


JACKSONVILLE, Florida (CNN)…From Florida stardom to brief NFL fame in Denver to flop in the Big Apple and Foxborough, the rise and fall of Tim Tebow has been well-documented, from Saskatchewan down to the Gulf Coast. Now the folks from Munchkinland are getting in on the act. Audience members taking in the new 3-D version of Wizard of Oz in local theatres, report the beloved flick forgoes the traditional “Surrender Dorothy” skywriting scene in lieu of the Wicked Witch of the West spelling out “Tebow, Why not?” aboard her broom high above the Emerald City in an apparent effort to get the Jaguars, who have nothing to lose, to acquire the beleaguered dual-threat athlete!

Suffering the first sub-.500 effort on the season and going 10-11 last week (51-40-4, .560)…sing it with us…Vin was tender…he was gentle…and his picks were…detrimental…regarding parlay carrrrrrds…It’s yer wagers you’d be losin’ and yer wallet you’d be bruisin’, if you only had…

(Paying no attention to that Manziel behind da’ curtain!)

Rutgers (+17 ½) over #8 LOUISVILLE:
Only Kentucky scored more than 7 vs. the Cardinals, but Da’ Ville’s high-powered offense managed only a pair of FGs in second half at Temple. Knights won’t be intimidated, having lost just 20-17 in 2012 and 16-14 here in 2011. Rutgers has played in two shootouts that went into the fitties, including triple-OT victory last week at SMU, but we’ll expect an “under” here. RU QB Gary Nova has just three fewer passing scores than Teddy Bridgewater and Knights are tied for #15 in sacks…Louisville 27 Paladins 13

SAT. OCT. 12
#1 Alabama (-27) over KENTUCKY:
Down 20 after three quarters, ‘Cats scored three touchdowns, presumably against the reserves, but forced the Gamehens to score one more of their own to secure the win. ‘Bama cured the offensive woes by posting 38 in the first half vs. Joja’ State. Fourth straight Top 25 foe for Kentucky, who shows losses by just 14, 17 and 7 over that span, but ‘Cats hit the board for a lone touchdown at Florida and obviously Tide is better on defense…and offense…than the Gators. The switch to the run-heavy spread-attack still only has Kentucky at #71 in rushing offense and Tide’s permitted two ground scores all season…Alabama 42 KY 10

#2 Oregon (-14) over #16 WASHINGTON: Even discounting the poor execution off-and-on throughout the game, what will the Huskies have left to bring against the Mallard’s juggernaut following 3-point loss at Stanford? To their credit, Sled Dogs’ last three SU losses back to last season have come by total of 8 points. UDUB lost by 31 in Eugene last season. Not sure it has closed the gap enough to stay this close. Unknown if Drakes will get RB DeAnthony Thomas back, but QB Mariota played less than three quarters last week and will be good to go here. Mean Green is 4-0 ATS to-date and has covered 8 of last 10 vs. ranked opponents…Ducks 41 UDUB 24

Boston College (+25 ½) over #3 CLEMSON: Clemson 35 Boston College 19

#4 Ohio State: IDLE (next vs. Iowa)

#5 Stanford (-7 ½) over UTAH: Only the linesmakers and the folks in Salt Lake City expected Utah to give UCLA a battle last week and Utes were in it until the last drive, despite six interceptions thrown by Travis Wilson. Both sides yield a lotta’ pass yards but each has only given up 9 aerial scores. Trees did not score in the final 16:32 at Washington and Huskies got a TD with 2:49 left to grab the cover. Utes defend the run well and UCLA awaits Stanford, but Cardinal is 8-3-1 in last dozen as road fave and this spread isn’t obnoxious…SU 34 Utes 24

#6 Florida State: IDLE (next @ Clemson)

#25 Missouri (+9) over #7 GEORGIA: UPSET PICK OF DA’ WEEK #1. ‘Dawgs showed no signs of letdown vs. Tennessee, scoring 10 points in the 1st Quarter, but the defense again was a problem as Joja’ committed no turnovers on the way to squandering a 14-point lead at the intermission. UGA missed RB Todd Gurley and was minus a couple defensive starters as well. Tigers have quietly won five straight games (3-1 ATS), matching last season’s win total, and will remember last year’s three-touchdown loss in Columbia. Georgia’s last outright defeat between the hedges came in early September of 2011, but expect a high-scoring tilt, going to…Mizzou 41 Joja’ 35

MISSISSIPPI (+5 ½) over #9 Texas A&M: UPSET PICK OF DA’ WEEK #2…Ole Miss 31 A&M 29

#17 Florida (+7) over #10 LSU: Gators have faced (and coulda’ beat) only one offense comparable to LSU’s…Miami (45 ppg scored), whom they held to 21 points in lone loss of the year. Bengals have not lined up against a defense this good (UF is #2 in total D, allowing just north of 12 ppg). QB Zettenberger has been efficient enough and Tigers can stay on the ground with Hill. Might come down to special teams. Tigers’ 23-1 SU record in Baton Rouge may be in jeopardy…LSU 23 Crocs 20

#11 UCLA (-24) over California: Bares have won four of the last five years in this series, but Cal’s only victory this year came over AA Portland State…by a touchdown…and Berkeley is otherwise 0-4 SU/ATS in FBS play and has dropped nine consecutive games to the line, including 44-22 loss to Wazzou in Week 6. Our concerns here for UCLA include a trip to Palo Alto next week and a mere7-point win at Utah despite snagging six (count ‘em, SIX) interceptions. Uclans won five straight games and got to the PAC-12 title tilt last year following 43-17 blow-out by the Bears, so we’re don’t think revenge will necessarily translate to Bruins returning the favor here, but…Bruins 44 Cal 13

#12 Oklahoma (-14) over Texas (@ Dallas): Steers are on borrowed-time this week, much like ASU was after gift- win vs. Wisconsin…Sooners 37 ‘Horns 20

#13 Miami: IDLE (next 10/17 @ UNC)

ARKANSAS (+6) over #14 South Carolina: Gamehens 23 Soooeey Pigs 19

KANSAS STATE (+17) over #15 Baylor: Bears 38 Purple Persians 28

#18 Michigan (-2 ½) over PENN STATE: We looked hard at this for “lock”. This is a lotta’ love for the Nitwit Lions after the alma mater lost by 20 to Indi-freakin’-Anna last week!? Simply looking at the box score for that game, there’s no way one would expect a lopsided victory by the Hoosiers, in fact…maybe not even a win by Indy. State’s best victory came via the 23-16 “neutral site” win over Syracuse. Big Blew seems to have solved the ball-security problem, blasting Minnesota last week. Unlike 2012, Lions, whose only other dubyas came vs. MAC doormats Eastern Michigan and Kent State, are playin’ like they have nothing to play for…Michigan 31 PSU 23

#19 Northwestern (+10) over WISCONSIN: LOCK OF DA’ WEEK. Seriously? Wildcats getting double-digits here???!!! NW was step-for-step with Ohio State last week and didn’t relinquish the lead until the fourth quarter, suffering the same malaise they did in 2012…wasted leads in the final period. Wonder how many Buckeyes backers scrambled to tape-together the shredded pieces of their tickets after ‘Cats, down 4 with seconds left, broke out the hook-n-ladder on the game’s final play and fumbled into the end zone resulting in a State recovery for touchdown and 10-point margin for the OSU cover???!!! Bad beat of the week!!! Those who watched the game saw a very competent team on both sides of the ball. No way does Northwestern not cover this and we’d consider a money-line wager as well…Wisky 29 NW 27

Iowa State (+15 ½) over #20 TEXAS TECH: We’re a bit surprised this one isn’t off the board given the uncertainty of playing status for Tech QB Mayfield. Dust Devils probably got hosed at end of Texas game and Big 12 officials were caught on an open mic discussing the PR strategy for that boo-boo. Raiders spotted Kansas a 10-point 1st Quarter edge before beating the Blue Birds rather badly. ISU made good on the Playbook.Com strategy we mentioned last week and we expect a similar effort here as Cyclones try to knock off a Top 25 opponent for the fourth consecutive season. State’s been close to posting more than its one victory (38-21 at Tulsa) a couple times and a third straight bowl berth is slipping away quickly if they don’t act now…Guns Up 34 Auntie ‘Em, Auntie ‘Em 27

#21 Fresno State: IDLE (next vs. UNLV)

#22 Oklahoma State: IDLE (next vs. TCU)

#23 NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-23) over Akron: Potent Huskies average 539 yards of offense and 42 ppg, sporting strong ground attack. Zips, other than turnover-assisted cover at Michigan and 5-point loss to Weeziana-Lafayette (in which Akron was also plus-two in turnover ratio), have not been competitive in their losses, opening MAC play last week with 43-3 defeat by Ohio. NIU has a victory over Iowa and trounced Purdue…Sled Dogs 41 Kangaroos 9

#24 VIRGINIA TECH (-9 ½) over Pittsburgh: Hokies 29 Panthers 13


Thought we’d share alternative forecast lead-ins we considered: “It’s the covers you’d be missin’, not the bookies you’d be dissin’ if ya only had…” and “You’d be tossin’ all yer cookies, not so friendly with da’ bookies if ya only had…”

Chuck Norris gave props to Tim Tebow last May and hoped Timmy ended up on the Jacksonville club, noting the controversial player “reminds me of myself when I used to compete in martial arts…”. Can’t wait to see the former Gator-Bronco-NY Jet reprise Chucky’s role in “Tebow: Texas Ranger” or face Bruce Lee in a remake of “Way of the Dragon”… or leading a special-ops rescue mission as Major McCoy in “Delta Forced-Fumble”!!!

Scary stat of da’ week…at 134 yards/game, the nation’s #1 passing yardage defense is…UNLV??? (We won’t mention the home-town heroes also stand-in at #123 in rushing yardage D, ahead of only New Mexico State!). Fortunately for the Rebels, this week’s opponent, Hawaii, runs for just south of 74 ypg (good for #119).

The Upton brothers led the Atlanta Braves in outfield put-outs until they were joined by their sister…Kate Upton!

Penguins forward Sidney Crosby entered a Pittsburgh DMV in August, planning to simply dump his license-renewal application into a corner and give chase, but was quickly whisked to the head of the line to prevent crowd control issues and disruption of services. Some normal folks at the facility were not pleased with Syd the Kid’s preferential treatment. Fear not, denizens of Iron City…in Pittsburgh…DMV still stands for Department of Malkin Vehicles! Oddly, most cities now have the capability for patrons to renew their Zamboni license or registration online!

Black Shirt: The carbon-colored cloth was earmarked for Ohio State’s Braxton Miller for committing three turnovers that shoulda’ led to a Northwestern cover, but instead we’ll forward it to Irish kicker Kyle Brindza for a 53-yard field goal that ultimately helped ND make good on our upset pick.

“Locked in a Box?”: The record now stands at 3-2-1 as sluggish Louisville couldn’t push far enough away from the Owls.

Shoppe Talk: An early candidate for Grill-Master Supreme “honors”, KFC falls to 1-4 (.200). The ‘Noles continue to be a bugaboo at 1-3 (.250 season; 5-11, .312 back to last year) and we barely escaped the clutches of the Mounted Ears this week (1-2, .333; 3-7, .300 back to last year). For those wonderin’ which teams have supported our picks regularly…Notre Dame 6-0, Florida 5-0 and LSU 5-0-1.

Vindy’s Week 7 Best Bets: Last Week: 3-2 Season: 18-10 (.643)
Buffalo -9 over WESTERN MICHIGAN, GEORGIA STATE +18 over Troy, Rice -2 over TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO, Georgia Tech +7 over BYU

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