Wednesday, November 02, 2016

Vindy's Picks Week 10-2016

EAU CLAIRE, Wisconsin (REUTERS)…Donald  Trump’s assertions that Decision 2016 is “rigged” are well-documented, but the Donald continued with that line-of-thinking Tuesday while on the campaign trail here shortly after release of this season’s first College Football Playoffs rankings were announced, telling supporters that those too, are “fixed”. The republican candidate cited the absence of nods whatsoever from the selection committee for Trump University as evidence. In an effort to support her husband, Melania Trump later babbled that both the election and the college football playoffs are…“rigid”.
After opening 2-0 behind the Hokies-Panthers “over” and Navy’s cover at South Florida on Thursday and Friday night, respectively, we were sloppy the rest of the weekend, going just 8-9 (74-76-3, .493) when it was said-and-done, with only arrestor beds at local McCarran Airport preventing the Picks from careening completely off the runway and crashing into...
(Being posterized by bookies everywhere!)

#17 Western Michigan (-16) over BALL STATE: With Boise State going down to unranked-Wyoming on Saturday, WMU is the last undefeated Group of Five squad season-opening road upset of Northwestern looks pretty good given Wildcats mere-4-point loss to Ohio State in Columbus. Broncos are 5-2 ATS overall, though just 1-2 of late (winning by 15 vs. Northern Illinois, by 41 at Akron and by 14 against Eastern Michigan). Cardinals are under first-year coach Mike Neu after tallying just 8 outright wins over the previous two seasons (6 vs. I-A competition), but have already reached half that total to-date in 2016. They did lose, as a small fave, by 10 at home to the aforementioned Zips. Western Michigan has covered all three games laying points on the road and have scored 41 or more in six of last seven contests. WMU is giving up just over 19 ppg to opponents and 10 ppg on the road. State won’t beat itself, showing +3 turnover margin in Oxford and just 28 penalties on the season, third-best behind just Navy (16) and the Badgers (23). Broncos have been opportunistic though with a +12 turnover margin (+6 away). We expect some regression back toward the middle after underdogs beat the line in 13 of 17 last week…Wild Horses 37 BSU 19 (This one’s already in da’ books as a forecast win in light of WMU’s 52-20 victory).

IOWA STATE (+20 ½) over #12 Oklahoma: OK 38 Cyclones 28

#21 COLORADO (-12) over Ucla: Third double-digit favorite role for Bison this year. First time Buffs have laid DD more than twice in over a decade…Buffaloes 41 UCLA 20

#24 BOISE STATE (-29) over San Jose State: LOCK OF DA’ WEEK. Spartans completed a 2016 sweep of the Silver State by holding on late to beat UNLV for its third win overall and second FBS victory. SJSU lost respectably by 7 earlier at New Mexico, but has been cannon-fodder in the other road matches as new DC Ron English has not mended the leaky D (27 ppg allowed last season, but only two opponents have hit the board for less than 34 in 2016). Broncos are 2-5-1 against the line after falling at Wyoming on a late safety and have failed to cover 9 of last 10 as double-digit conference home-chalk. Boise needs to win-out…yuuuuuge!…BSU 45 San Josie 7

#15 LSU (+7 ½) over #1 Alabama: In our opinion, this is Tide’s best chance to fall ahead of the playoffs (Auburn’s playing well but Iron Bowl’s in Tuscaloosa and in our anticipated conference championship vs. Da’ Gators, we don’t think Florida has the offense to keep pace). Saban’s boys have won four straight in the series, but the two played here were decided by 4 and 7. Bengals are surging with three consecutive wins and covers and have dropped just 3 of past 26 at home. Still, will ‘Bama continue to be “the elephant in da’ rue”?!...UA 23 LSU 20
Maryland (+30 ½) over #2 MICHIGAN: Best guess for “wish we had it back”, but…Wolverines 41 Box Turtles 13

Syracuse (+27) over #3 CLEMSON: Tigers 34 Orange 14
#4 Washington @ CAL (“Under 78”): CFP Poll five-hole in favor of #4-spot going to Texas A&M, and one-score victory at Utah, should provide a little inspiration to the Huskies, but we see it below the total…UDUB 41 Berkley Bears 27

BOSTON COLLEGE (+24 ½) over #5 Louisville: Will the real Louisville please stand-up?! Cards have been tested by the better defensive squads on the schedule. Eagles stand-in tied at #33 scoring D with Louisville at 23 ppg. UL’s way-too-close wins against a couple of non-Top 25 clubs cost it some votes in first CFP poll. Bc grabbed a road-upset NC State Saturday. Last time Da’ Ville evaded a true upset (24-14 win over Duke), they smoked NC State at Papa John’s Stadium. BC lost in 2015 by 17-14 final…Cardinals 28 Eagles 14
#9 Nebraska (+17) over #6 OHIO STATE: Buckeyes weathered their post-Penn State upset-loss to survive vs. Northwestern, but are on 0-4 spread-slide and have covered just one of last six conference games at Da’ Shoe. Huskers have been near-gold as B10 road- dogs. We thank Corn Meal QB Tommy Armstrong Jr. for validating our Week 9 prediction that Bad Tommy would “throw a pair of INTs” at Wisconsin by doing exactly that!...OSU 29 NU 21

#7 Texas A&M (-13 ½) over MISSISSIPPI STATE: Hopin’ the coveted four-spot in the CFP rankings this week doesn’t go to the Aggies’ heads (and TAMU owes us after deciding not to score at least a FG over final eleven minutes in failed-cover vs. New Mexico State last week (though…we had a feelin’!)…A&M 34 Bulldogs 17
#8 Wisconsin (-7) over NORTHWESTERN: Badgers 23 NW 9

#10 Florida (-5) over ARKANSAS: Gators 27 Bacon Bits 12
Vanderbilt (+25) over #11 AUBURN: Tigers and Rebels collectively-punted just four times while combining for over 11 yards of offense. We expect something more defensive here. Vandy had an extra week to plot against Auburn RB Kam Pettway. Tigers have beaten the line 7 times in 8 tries but visit Athens next and Commodores last four games have been decided by 3, 7, 7 and 1…Auburn 31 Admirals 10

Texas Christian (+8 ½) over #13 BAYLOR: UPSET PICK OF DA’ WEEK…Frogs 44 Bares 37
Kansas @ #14 WEST VIRGINIA (“under 54”): ‘Eers off season’s first defeat…at Oklahoma State…by 17. NASA is still investigating some sorta’ tear in da’ time-space continuum (or whatever celestial occurrence  the passenger jet in Stephen King’s “The Langoliers” flew into given the otherwise 0-5 spread-record and who’ve already lost by at least this many four times, all away from Lawrence) that channeled da’ 2008 Fightin’ Manginos (who went 8-5 SU in their last semi-relevant pigskin-season) for their role in the 24-23 loss to TCU. Mounties haven’t recorded a goose-egg on D since…well…49-zippo triumph about this time last year over KU. Deja’ vu (kinda’)… WVU 39 KU 0

#16 Utah: IDLE (next Thurs. 11/10 @ ASU)
Georgia Tech @ #18 NORTH CAROLINA (“over 61”): Bees are 5-2 “over” this season and showed why, going up big at Duke before eventually staving-off the Blue Devils for a 38-35 win. Tech QB Justin Thomas is a threat to run and throw and should help GT score enough to push this past the total vs. rested ‘Heels despite Carolina’s 3-0 “under” run…UNC 40 ‘Jackets 34

#19 Florida State (-5 ½) over NC STATE: Second choice for “lock”…’Noles 27 Wolfpack 17
#20 PENN STATE (-7 ½) over Iowa: As they usually do, da’ Lions made us pay for pickin’ against them. Purdue game was tied at the half, thanks to Boiler D, flags and again, some special-teams mistakes. State, who ame in at #12 in this week’s CFP poll, pulled away after early 3rd Quarter miscues started the Choo-Choos’ self-destruction. At the command of the coach, Alma Mater’s goin’ “White-Out” again to host da’ Hawkeyes. Iowa’s three defeats have come by 8 or less. Another good choice for “under”… Fightin’ Franklins 23 Iowa 14

#22 Oklahoma State (+3) over KANSAS STATE: MINOR UPSET PICK OF DA’ WEEK…Cowboys 37 KSU 34
DUKE (+11) over #23 Virginia Tech: Hokies 17 Blue Devils 10

#25 WASHINGTON STATE (-16 ½) over Arizona: Considering 0-2 start that included outright defeat by FCS Eastern Washington in Pullman,  a spot in the Top 25 is impressive. Cougars have strung together six victories for Mike Leach since 17-point road-demise at Boise State. Wazzou throws for more yards/game than anyone except Texas Tech and Weeziana Tech. Wildcats ain’t horrible defending the pass, but are in the bottom third of the country, have lost three of their past four tilts by at least 24 points and have been poor road-dogs the last years...State 48 AZ 23

BTW, Trump said he will get Mexico to build and pay for a wall…of blockers on kick-returns in some yet-to-be-determined bowl game in Texas or Arizona!
Throughout his presidential campaign, The Donald has also regularly taken pot-shots at…Oreos…for moving a Chicago-based staff South-of-the-Border. Pooh-poohing a popular myth, Nabisco has continued to reassure the nation that the famous cookies are still produced in the U.S., notably in three states, including Oregon. Vindy’s spies confirm the Beaver State versions are made in Eugene, and commensurate with the Ducks uni combos, come in nearly 70 variations of green, gold, white, silver wafers and an equal number of crème-filling hues… with and without embossed wings! BTW, one of the other states-in-question is New Jersey, to which rotund Garden State Governor Chris Christie replied, “MMMM… Oreos!”

On Sunday, November 6, will the most of the nation recognize Game-Daylights Savings Time?
On da’ Presidential-Election ballot…we’re wrote-in Corso/Herbstreit 2016…“Making America ‘GameDay’ again!”

As we welcome the start of NBA regular season, we wonder…if a Billy Joel classic meets a certain former NBA star, will we hear…”And Captain Shaq will getcha’ high tonight…”
“Wish We Had It Back”: Yep, we’d like a mulligan for changing our initial pick on A&M -43 ½ over New Mexico State.

“Locked in a Box?”:  Dropping back-to-back lock choices for the first time this year, our record falls to 5-4 (.556) as UDUB (-10) could only muster a 7-point victory over Utah.     
Black Shirt: Goes to Middies’ QB Will Worth for the 9-yard scoring pass as time expired to give Navy (+7 ½) the 1/2-point cover and send Vindy into Saturday’s games up 2-0. (Ironically, that line was +6 on game-day and would go officially as a spread-loss).

Shoppe Talk: Off da’ bye week, da’ Gators (1-5, .167) and Clemson Tigers (2-5, .285) hosed us again. Back in after a week’s absence are the bAggies of A&M (2-5, .285). And only 2-4 (.333), but on 0-4 slide are the Baylor Bares!
Vindy’s Week 10 Best Bets:       Last Week:  2-4    Season: 25-24 (.510)

Brigham Young-CINCINNATI “under 54 ½”, East Carolina +7 ½ over TULSA, WYOMING -5 over Utah State, NAVY +6 ½ over Notre Dame, Purdue +17 over MINNESOTA
On-deck for Week 11….thoughts on…college hoops!

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