Monday, October 31, 2016

Vindy's Picks Week 10-2016 Early Edition

#17 Western Michigan (-16) over BALL STATE: With Boise State going down to unranked-Wyoming on Saturday, WMU is the last undefeated Group of Five squad season-opening road upset of Northwestern looks pretty good given Wildcats mere-4-point loss to Ohio State in Columbus. Broncos are 5-2 ATS overall, though just 1-2 of late (winning by 15 vs. Northern Illinois, by 41 at Akron and by 14 against Eastern Michigan). Cardinals are under first-year coach Mike Neu after tallying just 8 outright wins over the previous two seasons (6 vs. I-A competition), but have already reached half that total to-date in 2016. They did lose, as a small fave, by 10 at home to the aforementioned Zips. Western Michigan has covered all three games laying points on the road and have scored 41 or more in six of last seven contests. WMU is giving up just over 19 ppg to opponents and 10 ppg on the road. State won’t beat itself, showing +3 turnover margin in Oxford and just 28 penalties on the season, third-best behind just Navy (16) and the Badgers (23). Broncos have been opportunistic though with a +12 turnover margin (+6 away). We expect some regression back toward the middle after underdogs beat the line in 13 of 17 last week…Wild Horses 37 BSU 19

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