Vindy's Picks Week 11-2009

PHILLY SAYS “THANKS” TO CLINTON

PHILADELPHIA, Pennsylvania (MSNBC)....A week after being honored with his own 10-foot statue in Kosovo for military actions he took as Commander-in-Chief ten years ago, Bill Clinton was on-hand in the City of Brotherly Love to see yet-another larger-than-life bronze likeness of himself supplant the beloved Rocky statue atop the steps of the Philadelphia Museum of Art for his role this past summer in the reinstatement of current Eagles player, Michael Vick. Back in July, after Commissioner Roger Goodell rejected the NFL Players Association’s first choice of envoy, Al Gore, Bill Clinton secured the release of the troubled athlete back into league play. Insiders say the former White House occupant, and Arkansas Razorbacks fan, thought he was actually making a diplomatic trip into the league’s headquarters in New York to broker a deal swapping wife Hillary for a pair of hostage cheerleaders! Eagles coach Andy Reid said Vick, who has contributed 27 total yards on two completions and a dozen carries to-date since being allowed to take the field under live-fire conditions, is “a vital part of this team and we’re indebted to the former president for this great coup!”

The dogs rallied, after two weeks of advantage by the chalk, to take 13 of the 22 tilts (14 of 23 if ya count Wake Forest, who covered vs. Joja’ Tech [we had the game “off” as we went to publication last week]) as Vindy managed to go 12-9-1 to break the century mark in wins (108-80-1, .574).

While Ron Mexico works out by running up the famed stairs, Vindy tries to console a visibly-distraught Sylvester Stallone by reading him....

THE WEBER KID’S 2009 WEEK 11 FORECAST
(still giving off that new car smell)

THURS. NOV. 12
RUTGERS over #23 South Florida (PK): Again, we question the award of a ranking to South Florida. Yes, the Bulls beat a West Virginia team that, like USF, was hanging around on the rim of the Top 25, but that victory was the Bulls’ first win in their last three games (losing to Cincy by 13 and by 27 at Pitt). Knights have won six of their last seven (yes, there are a pair of I-AA victims too), including UConn on the road and a 7-point defeat to the Panthers. Both teams had last weekend off...Jersey Turnpike Paladins 24 USF 17

FRI. NOV. 13
#5 CINCINNATI over West Virginia giving 8 1/2: ‘Eers had a shot at returning to the rankings, but voters weren’t impressed with lackluster 14-9 win over Louisville. Bearkats were allowing less than 14 ppg until barely evading UConn in last week’s point-party. Mounties have won five of last six on the season, but are in 1-6 ATS free-fall. First ranked opponent for West Virginia in two years...UC 34 WVU 14

SAT. NOV. 14
#1 Florida over SOUTH CAROLINA giving 15 1/2: Either Vandy kept Mr. Tebow well-contained or the Gators QB was simply protecting himself again, going for mere 27 yards on 16 carries (four sacks lowered the original total though). Gamehens are happy to be back in Columbia, where they’ve won all four games, after losing back-to-back road tilts. Poultry has dropped 3 of last 4 ATS. Crocs have just one spread win over their last 4. Somethin’ has to give...Gators 29 KFC 10

#2 Texas over BAYLOR giving 23 1/2: Bears musta’ taken some of that same magical elixir the New Mexico Lobos imbibed right before almost ambushing San Diego State given Baylor’s SU win over Missouri in perhaps one of the biggest upsets, points-wise, of Week Ten. We’re guessing Colt McCoy thought 470 passing yards was a sufficient Heisman outing since Texas elected not to score after the nine-minute mark and failed to cover vs. UCF. In June, Steers LB Sergio Kindle crashed into an apartment building (...oh...and he was actually in a vehicle!). BTW, the apartment actually lost three yards on the play and was forced to punt! Bears lost by 24 in Austin last season, but we don’t expect da’ Bears (or da’ Lobos for that matter) to win or cover this Saturday...Steaks 42 Yogis 9

MISSISSIPPI STATE over #3 Alabama taking 12: Tide’s been on the brink two weeks running now and bounced back only when LSU lost its starting backfield. Bulldogs have won 2 of 3 SU and are on 3-0 spread run. Not a bad line considering State lost to the Bengals by 4 in Starkville and ‘Bama defeated LSU by 9. Dogs have lost three games against ranked foes this year by 4, 11 and 10. This one turns out a lot closer than it oughta’. In fact, we’re havin’ visions of the Iowa-Northwestern match, but we’ll just call it...Alabama 20 MSU 16

#16 Utah over #4 TCU taking 20: This got a good look for lock. With Iowa minus Ricky Stanzi on top of its already-lost starting RB for the Ohio State game, this one takes “game of da’ week” honors. After collectively outscoring last week’s opponents by 100-26, these two will be lucky to combine for 30 total points on the board. Neither has a conference loss and the Toads, of course, can still garner a BCS-buster bid. Froggies spanked the Mormons in Provo earlier and could get some payback for last year’s 13-10 loss to Utah (following two missed 4th Quarter field goals by kicker Ross Evans) that removed them from BCS consideration. Utes haven’t lost to TCU since 2005. Toads on 4-0 SU/ATS run that’s seen them allow a total of 25 points-against. In last 4 games, Utah is 2-2 ATS and yielding 14 ppg...TCU 16 Utah 9

#6 BOISE STATE over Idaho giving 31 ½: No faith in this call as we flip-flopped like a freshly-caught tuna on a boat deck. It pains us to go against arguably one of the surprise teams of 2009, but the linesmakers and other teams themselves have caught up to the Vandals (2-2 SU/0-3-1 ATS of late). Boise had twice as many yards as Weeziana Tech, who rallied from a 20-point hole to make it close, but Idaho lost badly at Reno earlier. On the plus-side, Vandals have given up more than 42 just once (70 in that aforementioned defeat to the Wolfpack) and have scored no less than 21 in any game. Only UC-Davis surpassed single-digits on Boise’s homefield...Broncos 49 Idaho 17

DUKE over #7 Georgia Tech taking 12 1/2: Bees could be flat on heels of overtime win over Wake Forest. Blue Devils are a victory away from first post-season eligibility since 1994 and lost by 8 at Virginia Tech. Dukies were on the wrong end of a 27-0 whitewash last year...’Jackets 26 Duke 16

#8 PITT over Notre Dame giving 7: Navy just added one more open can of Sterno to Charlie Weis’ seat. Panthers have covered only three of last dozen tries vs. the Frightenin’ Irish, while the Leprechauns have lost the money five straight times following their annual tango with the Middies (we thank Marc Lawrence for those dirty details!). Panthers managed a 4OT victory last season...Pitt 31 ND 12

#9 LSU over Louisiana Tech giving 24 1/2: Bulldogs catch the Bengals at a bad time. LSU has lost its top runner for the duration of at least the regular season and will re-focus after letting ‘Bama get away. Tech is horrible as a non-conference dog (0-2 this year) and spent everything it had trying to stay with Boise last week. Bulldogs now 4-10 as a road dog under Coach Dooley...LSU 42 LT 10

#10 OHIO STATE over #15 Iowa giving 16: Assuming State doesn’t stumble in finale at Ann Arbor, a win here sends the Buckeyes to the Rose Bowl. Hawkeyes finally ran outta’ miracles and despite being 3-0-1 ATS away and having covered four straight vs. the Top 25, Iowa will likely be without its entire starting backfield and will let a redshirt freshman start at QB for this one...OSU 31Iowa 12

#25 Stanford over #11 USC taking 10 1/2: Trees would still need some help to win the Packed-It-In Ten conference title, but have gone 7-2 against the number. Trojans managed just 12 first-downs and the only scores last week came via a 55-yard pick-six and a 75-yard pass play. Troy’s last home loss came about two years ago to.... Stanford! ... Cardinal 23 USC 20

NORTH CAROLINA over #12 Miami taking 3 1/2: Yeah, sure. Like Vindy’s got a snowball’s chance of hitting the right side of this one. Jacory Harris leads a nice passing attack for the ‘Canes, but has been in four games decided by 4 or less this year. Heels ain’t bad on defense despite sharing the Coastal Division cellar with Virginia. Carolina’s covered last six vs. ranked opponents (catching Joja’ Tech on the one week it wasn’t in the Top 25)...Carolina 20Miami 19

#13 Houston over CENTRAL FLORIDA giving 5: Cougars were +2 in turnover margin and still needed a lengthy field goal to beat Tulsa in game that featured a combined total over 1200 yards. Coogs D has abandoned them of late. Central Florida is stout against the run, allowing just 85 ypg, but Case Keenum will break the 4000-yard mark this week. First back-to-back ranked opponents for Central Florida since 2004 (when they went 0-2 SU/ATS vs. Wisky and West Virginia). We like UCF better for next week, hosting Tulane...Houston 38 Knights 27

#14 OREGON over Arizona State giving 17: Given the result of the Stanford game, Oregon coach Chip Kelly might consider re-mailing that same check he sent to a disappointed fan following the Boise State debacle. This should be a good match-up between State’s run defense (87.4 ypg) and Decoys’ rushing attack (233.6 ypg). Sun Devils riding 3-1 spread run and their only loss b y this many came vs. Stanford. Mallards have covered four of five on The Pond this season and own four wins by 24 or more. ASU hasn’t covered in this series since outright 28-13 win at Autzen Stadium in 2004...Quack Attack 38 ASU 17

Texas Tech over #17 OKLAHOMA STATE taking 3 ½: Cowboys RB Toston, who is not among the top rushers in the nation statistically, went for 206 yards and three touchdowns in romp at Iowa State. Okie State will need his services to limit opportunities for rested Red Raiders prolific passing offense. State’s no slouch, scoring about 34 ppg, but Tech is denting the board for 40 ppg, knocked off then-ranked Nebraska, lost by 1 to Houston and gave Texas all it could handle in Austin. It also lost by 22 to Texas A&M... OKSU 38 Texas Tech (GASP!) 35

#18 Arizona over CAL taking 1 ½: We considered this strongly for lock too, but we’re a little paranoid after last week’s lock choice in similar let-down situation. Bears hoping to collect themselves following upset by Oregon State (as predicted by your fab forecaster!). That game wasn’t even as close as the final margin indicates because Berkeley scored with a minute left. ‘Cats are just a half-game from Oregon for the conference lead and a Rose berth. AZ bested the Beavers in Corvallis and Stanford at home. Bares have handled UA easily the past three visits to Cal. Is there another upset hangover coming in the PAC-10? Even if Jahvid Best returns for Cal after his concussion last week, AZ holds the opposition to 96 ground yards per game...Arizona 27 Cal 17

Indiana over #19 PENN STATE taking 25 ½: Hoosiers are 3-2 ATS away this year and would be 4-1 if not for the zebra-induced insult at Iowa. Indiana has lost by this many just once as previously-noted (40-point defeat at Virginia). Lions failed in all three phases of the game vs. Ohio State and have covered just once in Happy Valley. Expect a better all-around effort from State, but Indiana gets the nod...PSU 35 Indy 13

MARYLAND over #20 Virginia Tech taking 17 ½: Pirates mistakes allowed Tech to cover last week in ho-hum 16-3 win. Terps were smoked in the opener at Cal and lost by 21 to Rutgers, but have been competitive in the other seven games. Hokies have not recorded consecutive spread wins on the year and need to run the table, then grab a bowl victory to extend their streak of 10-win seasons to six...VT 24 Box Turtles 9

#21 WISCONSIN over Michigan giving 8 ½: Only 4th dog role for the Wolverines, who covered two of the previous three, but Big Blew is in midst of 1-5 ATS skid and at 1-5 SU in the conference, has been relegated to spoiler. Frankly, after 25-point losses in back-to-back weeks facing Penn State and Illinois, Michigan may not care about anything except taking a shot Ohio State next week...Badgers 24 UM 7

#22 Brigham Young over NEW MEXICO giving 27: LOCK OF DA’ WEEK. A three-year probation and off-the-field issues have really made a mess of the Lobos football season. Can’t imagine the Mormons’ offense not bustin’ out the big lumber here...BYU 42 New Mexico 3

#24 Clemson over NC STATE giving 8 ½: First visit to the Top 25 for the Tigers since early 2008. Remember early this year when we said watch NC State, at least ATS? Uhhhh....never mind. Wolfpack actually still has a shot to go bowlin’, but needs two victories in final three games. With Virginia Tech and UNC following this one, we don’t see it. NCSU has three losses by 6 or less, but also a pair by 21 (to Duke) and 32 (to Boston College). C.J. Spiller should make it happen for Clemson...CU 30 NC State 17

BETWEEN THE HASHMARKS
Seattle Seahawks wide-out TJ Houshmandzadeh, unhappy with his statistical rankings in the video game (NFC WR #6), is boycotting Madden NFL ‘10. Two weekends ago, the diva receiver unpleasantly gestured to his quarterback to get the throws up. Can’t wait to see that scenario in Madden NFL ‘11 (hey...if it’s in the game....!)

As we welcome the start of the college hoops season, we note that because the SAT test was taken by another student on behalf of a player on the Memphis Tigers ‘07-‘08Final Four squad, that team has to forfeit its 38 wins from that season. Ironically, the player-in-question would eventually take Florida State’s online music history test without assistance...and pass with flying colors!

This Tuesday, Sesame Street celebrated its 40th anniversary. We thank the popular children’s program for our own football IQ. Who can forget the lovable Ernie crooning, “Rubber Duckieeeee..you’re the one...who makes our spread time... lotttttsa’ fun!” Or how ‘bout Count Von Count doing the halftime scores and highlights....”Today’s number is 7. One, two, three, four, five, six, SEVEN. Seven sacks.” And of course, “This week’s forecast is brought to you by....the letter ‘V’!” (No that’s not for the mice-eating reptilian aliens appearing on the upcoming remake of the television series of the same name or for the masked revolutionary/saboteur/protagonist in “V for Vendetta”).

New Mexico defender Elizabeth Lambert got suspended after her team’s MWC women’s soccer match vs. BYU last week for violent and reckless play , which included a hair-pulling takedown of an opponent. Well, at least we know who was wearing LB Brandon Spikes’ jersey on the field at linebacker during Florida’s game vs. Vandy!

Black Shirt: Houston kicker Matt Hogan dons the terrific tee for booting a 51-yarder to give the Coogs the win (and Vindy a forecast W for having Houston +1 at the time!)

“Wish I Had That One Back”: The Weber Kid knew he was making a bold move backing a depleted Syracuse +21 at Pitt!

“Locked in a Box?”: Uggghhhhh! Ducks ended up in the shooting gallery and drop Vindy’s third straight lock pick (and 4th in 5 weeks) as the record plummets to 4-6 (.400)

Shoppe Talk: It’s the usual suspects....AGAIN...Miami (1-7), Ohio State (1-7 in last 8) and LSU (1-6 in last 7)!

Vindy’s Week 11 Best Bets: Last Week: 1-4 Season: 18-25 (.419)
At 1-8 the last two weeks, we say “Go!...Run!.....Save yourselves!”...AIR FORCE -17 over Unlv, Nebraska -3 ½ over KANSAS, WASHINGTON STATE +17 1/2 over Ucla, MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE -11 ½ over Weeziana-Lafayette